All Under 4: Interesting Stats from 2012(over the course of the 2012 NFL season)Running Backs:
- Number of times Doug Martin fumbled the ball in 368 total touches (1)
- Number of rushing touchdowns scored by LeSean McCoy (2)
- Number of games where C. J. Spiller's YPC was under 4.0 (2)
- Number of games where Ryan Mathews YPC was over 4.4 (3)
- Number of total TD scored by Ryan Mathews (1)
- Number of games in which Stevan Ridley had a reception (3)
- Number of games Adrian Peterson had less than 17 carries a game (2)
- Number of games in which Trent Richardson had a ypc greater than 4.8 (3)
- Games in the second half of the year in which Bernard Pierce received less than 8 carries (2)
- Games in which Jamaal Charles ran for 10 or less yards (3)
- Games in which Jamaal Charles ran for 226 or more yards (2)
- Number of games Matt Stafford attempted less than 42 passes in a game (3)
- Number of games Peyton Manning ran for more than 9 yards in a game (0)
- Number of games Ryan Tannehill threw for more than 235 yards in a game (3)
- Games in which Drew Brees threw less than 2 TD (3)
- Games in which Ryan Tannehill threw more than 1 TD (3)
- Games in which Cam Newton had less than 5 rushing attempts (2)
- Number of games in which Megatron had less that 5 receptions (2)
- Number of Games in which Megatron was targeted less than 11 times (3)
- Number of touchdowns scored by Brian Hartline (1)
- Games in which Randell Cobb caught less than 50 percent of the balls thrown to him (1)
- Games in which Torrey Smith caught more that 60 percent of the balls thrown to him (2)
- Games in which Vernon Davis had more than 5 targets (3)
- Games in which Jason Witten had less than 7 targets (3)
- Games started by Gronkowski in which he failed to score (3)
- Games in which Jason Witten was able to score (3)
- Number of kicks missed by Blair Walsh in 38 attempts (3)
- Games in which Mason Crosby missed at least 2 attempts (3)
Since taking the field for Drew Bledsoe years ago, Tom Brady has been a winner on the field.
For many seasons, especially since receiving offensive weapons to support his production, Tom Brady has been a staple of fantasy teams as well. Tom has never been a talker or self-promoter. Never one to boast, he let his actions on the field do the talking.
Now the big news going around that he was quoted in an interview as saying…
"Going into my 14th year, I have never had more confidence in how I am throwing the football," the New England Patriots quarterback told Sports Illustrated's Peter King at a Best Buddies volunteer event. "I've never felt better throwing the football."
That’s odd. Why would a player whom has never needed to boost his stock, come out and say something semi-self promotional like this? Very few things in the mainstream NFL media (especially under the careful eye of Belichick) are released accidently. Nothing is placed without reason. So what is the meaning of this statement?
I am from the school of thought that statements that are made explaining something that was already assumed is a possible sign of weakness.
I remember that during my childhood, the only time that I really worried about anything was whenever my mother told me that “everything is going to be alright.”
…well of course everything is going to be alright. Why wouldn’t everything going to be alright? What is really going on?
It is expected for Brady to get older and loose some zip on his throws. It is expected for Brady to go through some growing pains with the loss of Welker and the questionable health of Gronk for the upcoming season. It is expected for Brady to show some regression with new cast members and aging teammates.
I had zero questions in Brady’s ability and confidence going into this season till he came out and openly explained that he still has “confidence”.
Just a thought…
| || |
Early and Often...
If you grew up around the years I did, sick days home from school were filled with the ageless wonder, Bob Barker, giving away fabulous prizes to the contestant with the closest bid.
As I was browsing through the completed mock drafts on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, thinking about how many different strategies of direction (going RB/RB, WR/WR, RB/WR, RB/TE…and so on) there are, my mind drifted to the game of plinko.
This was everyone’s favorite game, because it had the biggest payout, but it also seemed like the game where you had the least control. I see that some people treat their fantasy draft like plinko. They drop their plinko chip wherever and hope for the best.
On many mock drafts, I have seen teams that have gone WR/TE/WR… they may have blindly gone best available and now it is middle of the fourth round and they are with out an RB1. They may have great players, but a weak team. When Vick Ballard is the best available, your season might be in trouble.
The fact is, the flow of the draft is going to take some swings and turns where you simply can’t control what will be available. In the draft like in plinko one must ask the question,
- “What variables can you control?”
Plinko: The placement and direction of the first few moves of the plinko chip sets the tone for the remainder of the turn.
It’s not total control, but you have a firm say on the first few moves of your puck, before momentum takes over. Your initial placement and movement set the tone for the remainder of the game. I think that the same can be said a fantasy draft. I can’t place enough importance on the idea that…
- The moves that are made in the first two or three rounds of the draft will set the tone and direction for the remainder of the draft.
So what should my first moves be? Let's start with how dreadfully thin the RB class is this year. I think that teams will be made or broken on the running backs you grab. Here are the top 10 RBs as they stand according to the ECR.
1 Adrian Peterson
2 Arian Foster
3 Doug Martin
4 Jamaal Charles
5 C.J. Spiller
6 Marshawn Lynch
7 Ray Rice
8 Trent Richardson
9 LeSean McCoy
10 Alfred Morris
In every ranking I have seen, this has been the clear-cut break between tier one and tier two (and for good reason). The second tier gets a little tricky…There has been a great deal of variance in the rankings beyond these top ten. The second tier...
· Some people want to bank on the studs that have disappointed like Forte
· Some people are interested in players that have had success, but are in situations where there is a timeshare looming like Ridley
· Some people love the older productive players that they hope have something left in the tank like MJD, Gore
, or S-Jax
· Some people love the young unproven players with huge potential like David Wilson
or Lamar Miller
· Some people are buying the injury prone players in great situations like Murray
What do all of the 10 players and situations above all have in common? Extreme elements of risk. The thing that the running backs above in the first tier all have in advantage to the running backs below this line are a confident combination of Youth, Opportunity, Reliability, Health, and proven track record of success. All of the running backs below the line are severely lacking in at least one area.
First, let me state this… I am not a supporter of hard and fast rules, but from what I have seen here is what I see as the best strategy… STEP 1:
- I think that it is crucial that you try to lock up at least one of the RBs from the top ten. (The exception to this strategy being Megatron, and then AJ Green if you get stuck with the 12th pick.)
- I also believe that you try to get at least one of the players from the second tier of running backs with your second or third pick. Even though they don’t offer the same value as the backs in the first tier this is the last tier of RBs that offers weekly starters. Aside from Marshall, Graham, Dez, or Gronk (if fully recovered), I don’t see any player you should consider taking before the players in the second tier of running backs.
The key to having a successful fantasy squad is having players with a balance reliable production with as minimal risk as possible. Like in the economic world, as supply goes down, value goes up, and I think that top tier running backs are more valuable than ever. The phrase...
- “Deep QB, WR, and TE class”
...has been chanted like a mantra this preseason and that’s because it’s real. You can get players like Romo, Ryan, and Wilson on the cheap.
- When you need to fill two RB spots, the value dramatically spikes again.
According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, players going in the 4th round currently are names like:
WR: Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, and Vincent Jackson
QB: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady
RB: Ryan Mathews, Vick Ballard, and Chris Ivory
Clearly you can see the caliber of RB in the 4th round is well below that of the QB and WR, but they are still getting drafted at the same time...Why you ask?
- Because of the law of supply and demand...
These less attractive RBs are being drafted by the teams that went WR/WR/QB or WR/QB/WR and are trying to make up for it when it is already too late. These managers may have great players, but now their team is going to be sunk by lack of quality in the RB department that they will need to start every week.
Moral of the story…best case senario, you leave the 3rd round with at least 2 or 3 quality RBs to start the draft, let others select top QBs and WRs.
- Send your Plinko chip in the direction of top tiered RB early and often. You will end up with a better team at the end of your draft. Do some mock drafts online and see what I am talking about. RB focus for the first few rounds, you will be amazed at what will be around for you later on.
In this article, I want to look back at recent seasons to pose the question, When there is a full stable of talented star players on a single NFL team, "Is it possible to have enough fantasy points to go around?"The majority of offenses, even though they wouldn't like to be labeled as such, can be classified as predominantly rush or pass oriented.
If you have a QB like Brady or Brees putting up record fantasy numbers, logic would dictate that it is unlikely you would have a RB that puts up anything remotely close to top 10 positional fantasy points. Likewise, when you have Peterson rushing for 2K, you won't find Ponder putting up Marino-esque stats. There have been a few outliers that defied the odds and rose above the logic... (standard scoring numbers used from nfldata.com) Recent Teams with a Top 10 QB/RB/WR Combo
(ranks according to their respective position)Select Examples: 2010 Texans
- QB: Schaub (9th), RB: Foster (1st), WR: Johnson (8th)
- QB: Manning (3rd), RB: Addai (3rd), WR: Wayne (4th)
- QB: Brooks (5th), RB: McAllister (6th), WR: Horn (10th)
The teams mentioned above have managed to hold a core trio that achieved elite fantasy numbers across the board. If you were playing fantasy football during the seasons the teams above were in action, you remember that these squads
seemed to steam roll defenses every week. Even more rare is finding instances where a top 10 TE is added to the equation resulting in positive results for all... Recent Teams with a Top 10 QB/RB/WR/TE Combo
(ranks according to their respective position) 2011 Falcons
- QB: Matt Ryan (8th), RB: Turner (6th), WR: White (7th), TE: Gonzalez (4th)
- QB: Rivers (9th), RB: Mathews (8th), WR: Jackson (10th), TE: Gates (7th)
- QB: Manning (5th), RB: Addai (9th), WR: Wayne (6th), TE: Clark (2nd)
Obviously, the position of TE has been revolutionized over the course of the last decade. The position has gone from pass protection priority, to one of offensive power and exceeding fantasy relevance.
- QB: Favre (3rd), RB: Peterson (2nd), WR: S. Rice (8th), TE: Shiancoe (6th)
While adding another exciting scoring aspect to fantasy, this value in turn pulls opportunity away from the other skill positions on the team. There even was one instance where there was a top 10 QB/RB/WR/WR combo, but the TE was a virtual non-factor...2002 Bills
There was one group of statistics that seems to be the most important piece of data that I found in my research...
- QB: Bledsoe (6th) , RB: Henry (8th) , WR: Price (9th), WR: Moulds (4th)
Recent Team with a Top 10 QB/RB/WR/WR/TE Combo
- Over the last 12 years, there has only been ONE team to come close to having a top 10 QB/RB/WR/WR/TE all in the same year...
(ranks according to their respective position) 2004 Colts
- QB: Manning (2nd), RB: James (5th), WR: Harrison (5th), WR: Wayne (8th) ...and TE: Clark (close at 11th)
If you remember, this was a historic year for the Colts. They were borderline unstoppable offensively. They scored the 10th most points per game in NFL history that year. Manning threw for a then record of 49 TDs and James rushed for 9 himself. The points were everywhere. Everyone reaped the benefits.Here comes the 2013 Atlanta Falcons...
Lets look back at last years production:2012 Falcons
- QB: Ryan (8th) WR: Jones (9th) WR: White (10th) TE: Gonzalez (3rd) ...and RB: Turner (17th)
Tony Gonzalez is returning for another year. With the recent addition of Steven Jackson to the backfield, the Falcons are looking to greatly improve on the run game from last year. Not to mention, upgrades on the defensive side of the ball as well."The stage is set for history to be made in 2013!"...or is it?Current ADP as of 4/16/13: standard draft
(fantasyfootballcalulator.com) QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Steven Jackson (11th and rising by the day)WR:
Roddy White (10th)WR:
Julio Jones (5th)TE:
Tony Gonzalez (5th) RESULTING CONCLUSIONS:
Each one of the players above are being drafted as an elite fantasy player. I agree that as individuals, they are (and have proven before that they are) capable of putting up top 10 elite fantasy football numbers.
My argument, is that even when looking at some of the greatest fantasy squads in recent history, not once
has a team had a QB/RB/WR/WR/TE combo achieve top 10 results. Even the history making 2004 Colts came up a little short. History seems to be telling us that there are only a limited number snaps in a game, only a limited number of targets to be had, and only so many
points to be had in a season. With so many capable mouths to be fed on a single team, someone typically ends up going hungry.
These 5 players all being drafted at or within the top 10 of all fantasy players at their position. Don't get me wrong, the Falcons are the most powerful fantasy force in the league this year, and I would love to have a piece of the action. I am simply saying that each of their players are being drafted as though they are going to accomplish something that has never been done in the history of Fantasy Football.
I don't want to be the one who overpays for a player who ends up being the odd man out and goes hungry for points.
The year 2001…
Senior year of college: I walk past my roommate’s door fully expecting him to be watching loud angry porn or smoking weed, or possibly both at the same time. Instead he is looking a list of random football players on his computer screen and cursing. Being a football fan, I enter his room, curious as to his endeavors. He was yelling something about “Priest Holmes crapping the bed last week”, as he was busily shifting players names around his screen. Seeing as he was a Vikings fan I found his concern for Priest Holmes both curious and confusing. When asked about it, he explained that it was…
- “…something called “fantasy football”. It’s pretty cool. It’s where a group of people form their own “league”. Then each member takes turns picking players and then they own them. You are a manager of a fake team and if those players play well, you get points. Then, if you get more points than the other manager, you win.”
I believe my exact response to this was…(pardon the language, I was pretty awesome back then)
- “What kind of stupid-ass, wannabe football, dungeons and dragons, fantasy horse-shit is this? You pretend that you “own” players? Dude, this is football we are talking about. Why fuck with it? Nerd it up all you want, but pretending to own players that aren’t even on the team you support sounds like the most pointless nerd shit ever.”
He then went on to explain how much fun it was, but I had long stopped listening by then, and had left his room to grab a cold can of Milwaukee’s Best Light from the fridge and listen to my Sugar Ray CD. (ugh…I had horrible taste in everything) Fast-forward 3 years…the year is 2004
I find myself living in a bachelor pad with a group of guys. Giving into peer pressure, I decide to take part in this fantasy crap everyone was so immersed in. I was doing it for purely social reasons and was not going to take it all that seriously…
In retrospect, this was a turning point in my life. Similar to when Neo had the choice between the red and blue pills. Many-a-time do I wonder what my life would have been like had I continued to avoid fantasy football. How would I view football today? What would I have done with all the freed up brainpower? Nevertheless, late August 2004, I took the red pill, went down the rabbit hole, and never went back.
My introduction to fantasy was a revolutionary turning point in the way I look at the game of football. Like in the Matrix with their endless streams of ones and zeros, I no longer see NFL teams, divisions, conferences, offense, and defense. I see yards, receptions, targets, attempts, completions, and carries.
The sad thing is, I couldn't turn it off now if I wanted to. Once you learn the truth about something, you can unlearn it. It is always there, in the back of your mind. I am a Packer Fan through and through, but even though I watch the games rooting for the Pack to win, I am still viewing the game through the lens of a Fantasy Football framework. Today
Don’t get me wrong. I live and breathe fantasy football. It has become a major part of my life and daily thought process. If I had to do it over again, I wouldn’t change a thing. Yet when ever I meet or talk to a football fan whom has never done fantasy sports before, I hit them with this disclaimer...
- “This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed watching football how you have always watched it. You take the red pill - you stay in fantasyland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”
There was a time in Steeler-town when the streets were paved with gold and fantasy points flowed like champagne from the fountains. Willy Parker passed the torch to a then future fantasy star in Rashard Mendenhall. 1000 yards and 10 tds were an assumed seasonal standard. The Pitt passing game Mount Rushmore was carved in stone with the faces of Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller. Youthful stars like Emanuel Sanders were waiting in the wings for their big break. There was time when Ben Roethlisberger could go to a restaurant without his waitress fearing impending grope-age.
My how times have changed…
- Mendenhall is injury plagued and on his way to Arizona
- Holmes has been helping to redefine mediocrity in N.Y.
- Wallace is counting his money on his way to Miami.
- Hines Ward is long since retired and drunk dancing somewhere.
- Sanders is currently seeking higher ground in New England.
But great news Pittsburgh…
- You just signed back-up QB Bruce Gradkowski and wait for it…
- Plaxico Burress is back (36 years old by start of the season)
- and that's about it.
So lets break down the starting fantasy line-up for the old black and yella… QB: Ben Roethlisberger
He has been the slow and steady engine that could for years. Never sexy, but reliable and regular as clockwork. Point you could count on. When most of your offensive weapons disappear and your offensive line breaks down over the course of the seasons, that leaves the quarterback on an island by himself. That is not a good place to have your Fantasy QB staying. He is no longer points to be counted on. RB: Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch
Anyone who was unlucky enough to have a piece of the cluster-F platoon that was the Steelers running game last year knows enough now to say there isn’t a single worth-while back in the bunch. No matter whom you started, the other players in the committee would put up equally pitiful numbers. I have trouble finding a RB3 worthy pick on the roster at this point.
WR: Antonio Brown
This might be the only player on this squad that I had any real hopes for this year. I think Brown is a player with talent, speed, and ability, but with the loss of Wallace and now Sanders, my hopes for him are slowly dwindling. He will be the last big play threat on the field, and with the focus on him, I don't see the value in him I once saw. WR: Plaxico Burress
He was good, but his time has passed. He will be 36 and being out of the game for 2 seasons didn't do him any favors. He still has the size to be a red zone threat, but they have to get there first. Beyond that, I don't see him being a fantasy factor in the slightest. TE: Heath Miller
Miller actually had a quiet productive season last year. He could have another similar type of season, but the whole team seems a bit scary for me. I like him as a backup TE with potential. High praise for a car in a potential train wreck.Conclusion: Welcome to the fantasy basement
Steelers!Current Fantasy Basement Occupants:
- N.Y. Jets
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Jacksonville Jags
QB: Michael Vick
2012 Preseason Rank #7
I am not the first to pile on Vick, but I will not be the last either. We should have seen it coming, but we come back every year like hamsters, hitting the lever, waiting for the treat, conditioned to look for the "upside". He is fast. He is talented. His offensive line fell apart at the beginning of the year, and is was curtains for Vick once Defenses learned how to contain him and cause mistakes.
Hope for 2013?: Yeah...well sorta... but you you should look at drafting him like buying a lottery ticket. Do it for fun, do it for cheap, and don't let your retirement rely on it. I like what Chip Kelly brings to the table with the fast paced offense. As always, I see the upside, but there are a list of QBs that will be on my roster before him.
RB1: Darren McFadden
2012 Preseason Rank #4
What is it with this guy? People LOVE to hype this guy to a new level every year. I myself saw the possibility of him living up to the boundless potential he had. Like marrying a hot chick that has been divorced 4 times, bankrupting her exs, hoping this is the time it sticks. He has never played more than 13 games, never rushed for more than 7 TDs. He has only rushed for over 750 yards once in 5 seasons. He looks amazing during preseason and during practice...every season.
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
- Albert Einstein
Hope for 2013?: Frankly...no. I know that he is going to be talked up to a borderline RB1 top 10 runningback by the time the preseason comes around. There is no way that I can even begin to consider throwing away a top 25 pick on a player that has a strong probability of disappointing his owner. Horrible. Horrible team. Horrible choice.
RB2: Maurice Jones-Drew
2012 Preseason Rank #11
I have always been a fan of MJD, but he really crapped the bed this season in so many ways. I know that players need to get paid, but there comes a time when you need to see the writing on the wall, suck it up, and do your job. The Jags made it clear there would be no new contract; the only one who didn't get the message was MJD. He managed to screw his teammates, his fans, himself, and any fantasy owner that trusted him enough to draft him. I was fairly disheartened by Jones-Drew's handling of his contract dispute, and in the end I think it will cost him a great deal of money he could have made and productive years he could have played.
Hope for 2013?: Some, but not as much as many will hope. If you look at the Jags, they are a team adrift with out many paddles. Not much is changing, not many prospects on the horizon, pretty much the same situation as last year. I see MJD like DMC getting talked up in the preseason to something close to a top 10 RB1 option. That is too high a price in my eyes. People are going to judge him for what he used to do and not what is going to be able to do on his current team with his current ability. I would avoid paying the price for MJD's errors in judgment and draft elsewhere.
WR1: Larry Fitzgerald
2012 Preseason Rank #2
Last season did not shake my respect and admiration for Larry Fitzgerald. I look at last season as purely a product of his situation and not for his ability or efforts as a player. Never the less, those that spent a valuable high pick on the second ranked WR in the league, were wondering where they could get a refund after the first few weeks. What a colossal train wreck the QB situation in Arizona was. It was hands down the worst in the league, and that statement was made with the acknowledgement of Gabbert and Sanchez. If you can’t get the ball to an absolute beast like Fitz, you need to kneel on the ball and take the L. Hope for 2013?: Yes. People are going to question the abilities of an aging Palmer. If you look at his numbers in Oakland, from a fantasy perspective, I think they showed some merit. I think he will prove to be even more productive in Arizona. The addition of Palmer is a huge upgrade from a gimpy Kevin Kolb and friends. Fitz is a ball hawk and a motivated force. Give him a little help and he will rebound for a big season ahead. I'm a fan going into 2013.
WR2: Greg Jennings
2012 Preseason Rank #10
Let me preface this by saying that I am a Packer fan and so this one let me down on many levels. Jennings has been a steady performer for years, but like MJD, the itch for a new contract before his current contract was up got to his head. He lost his heart and eventually his health. I don’t want to talk too much about this guy because it is going to upset me, but like the others, he let his fans, team, and fantasy owners down. Blah. Hope for 2013?: Egh. No, I don't see a bounce back year for the purple turncoat. Ponder is about as far from Rodgers as you get. I imagine that many people are going to equate past success and future targets with potential, I simply don't see it that way. Percy Harvin was special in a way that Jennings will never be. The only reason Harvin shinned in his WR role in MIN was because he made the plays. The Vikings will be a run first team, and I don't see targets turning into as many completions as some might hope. Jennings is an average WR with a big contract, don't reach.
TE: Jermichael Finley
2012 Preseason Rank #6
Damn it Jermichael, you screwed us again.
Amazing physical size and ability, best quarterback in the league throwing you the ball...and huge hands made of stone to drop the ball with. Listen Finley, if you don't catch the ball, eventually they are going to throw it to other people. I, like other people, drafted him with the highest hopes when looking at the amazing offensive situation he was in. I started him many weeks, knowing he was going to screw my team, but the potential for the big payoff was just around the corner. It never came. Lesson, learned. Feelings, hurt. Hope for 2013?
: Not much from me. His situation is similar to last year, but until he can become a sure-handed red-zone go-to guy like his abilities would lead you to believe, I just think his price will be too high for someone you can't trust. Honorable Mention (bench):
QB2: Phillip Rivers
Preseason Rank #11
RB2: Ryan Mathews
2012 Preseason Rank # 9
RB: Fred Jackson
2012 Preseason Rank #14
TE: Vernon Davis
2012 Preseason Rank #5
Going into the season last year, I had a list of predictions for a bunch of players. I tend to try to stay away from players coming off of significant injury...here were two of my main predictions...
- Adrian Peterson will not be ready by week 1. Toby Gerhart will play for the first 4 games of season as the starter, then Peterson will return but will be mainly ineffective.
- Peyton Manning will play the first half of week one before having his head literally knocked the f off his shoulders.
Needless to say, I about as far off on these predictions as one could be. I mean Peterson's injury were in the leg pretzel category of Mcgahee and Latimore, and Manning by all accounts should have retired. I might be in the minority here, but I feel that both of these cases were exceptions to the rules of logic.
- Adrian Peterson is clearly a cyborg created by the North Koreans sent here to destroy record books, impregnate our women, solve the fiscal cliff issue, find the cure for cancer, obtain national security classified information, score touchdowns, then turn into a rocket and return to North Korea. The guy is complete medical marvel. He eats arm tackles and craps excellence. Mad respect.
- Peyton Manning: My logic was, Tempt paralysis once, shame on paralysis. Tempt paralysis twice...your head is going to fall the f off. I did some research into his injury before the season, and the possibility of what one hit could have done was straight scary. Forget playing, the ability to walk and breathe were at risk last season. All Manning did was play all 16 games of the season and lead one of the most potent aerial offenses in the league.
So it seems no one can tell the future...but to the table come a whole new batch of injury concerns and questions for 2013.
- RG3 - another leg pretzel. He is young and the rehab report sounds like he will be ready for week 1, but this is coming from Redskin's PR.
- MJD - What do you do here? He has been a fantasy staple. His leg and attitude in 2013 leave room for serious question.
- Ryan Mathews - New HC, new offense, same old frail bone structure of a 80 year old woman.
- Demarco Murray - Crazy Talent, Crazy Offense, Crazy inability to stay on the field.
- McFadden - Everyone reenacts memento with this guy each season. The potential is sick, but what do you do with him? He sneaks into the top 2 rounds every season.
The list goes on and on...but here are the ones that came to mind off the top. But what factors should go into consideration when forming opinions and predictions about a players ability to recover from a serious injury...the factors I use are...
- Severity of injury
- Injury history
- Age of player
- Amount of career wear on player
- Physical Needs of position vs. type of injury
I was dead wrong about Manning and Peterson, and will try not to let my bruised pride influence my draft this year. My position remains that players with major injury concerns going into the season regularly have risk that outweighs the benefit.
I get it. I had the exact same questions. We would all like to know the future, but I have been reading a lot of the same type of question, and they seem to all have the same answer. Asking...
- "What round should I draft Russell Wilson?"
is like asking...
- "How many minutes into a date should I wait before I touch her boob?"
There is no way to know how things are going to pan out in a draft or a date and therefore it is impossible to say what round is precisely the right "time" to draft a player (or touch a boob). Years ago I printed out and referenced a ranking system that incorporated "round estimates" and it completely screwed me. I ended up taking players way too early and missing out on others, all because I followed a timeline and not the flow of the particular draft. A Round is simply like a unit of time, like an hour. You CANNOT successfully go into a draft with a hard and fast plan based upon time. You need to be flexible and be able to adapt to the swings of the draft. Use logic and common sense to decide picks not a timeline.
- If you have a draft plan that says you are going to take Steven Jackson in the second round, and something crazy happens and Megatron is available...YOU TAKE MEGATRON!
- If you have a plan that says that the two of you are going to go out for ice cream, but she wants to park and have you touch her boob...YOU TOUCH HER BOOB!
Long story short, I strongly suggest either making your own, or printing out a version of up to date "tiered rankings" (positional and overall versions) Stick to these to know what a good value is when filling roster spots, and throw the "what round" plans out the window.
Now on the other hand it is good to have rules and standards in play that you will stick to that involve not repeating mistakes from previous seasons and players you will not draft...
- I will not draft Ryan Mathews or McFadden before the 12th round...
- On the date, I will not do Meth and get her name tattooed on my ass...
These are good rules to follow and stay strict to. Sometimes it is necessary to write down a list of rules that you want to stick to to avoid the negative repeating itself. It happens to us all, the further a guy like Mathews falls, the more tempting he is going to appear. He's going to screw the guy who takes him, but all is forgotten on draft day. No one wants to be the guy to take him, but everyone is eying him, that value of potential is going to seem overwhelmingly tempting. If you write down the list of black listed players in advance, you can avoid the headache during the season.
Just a thought, good luck y'all